Author: Theo
Interestingly, in Gartner’s infamous “hype cycle,” we can trace the characteristics of the metaverse (here referring to the “virtual world”).
I can find it in two reports: in 2010 and 2012, and then finally mentioned the metaverse in 2022.
Interestingly, they predict that virtual worlds and public virtual worlds have an incubation period of about 5-10 years, which makes it “land” today.
But now they say that the metaverse still needs another 10 years.
Gartner Research Director Steve Prentice said as early as 2007, “Second Life is entering a phase of disillusionment.” This makes me wonder what he would say today looking at the current peak of hype.
More interestingly, his comments on how many people will live a virtual life.
“By 2011, 80% of active Internet users (and Fortune 500 companies) will have a ‘Second Life,’ but not necessarily in Second Life.”
Prentice also believes that most virtual worlds in 2011 will not be console-based; they will remain primarily PC-centric platforms. But he does think that by then, we might see metaverses accessible via mobile phones and PDAs.
Now, we may have to pay more attention to this. Prentice believes that none of the existing virtual worlds will dominate four years later.
To be honest, all the signs are there, and this history may repeat itself.
Prentice also saw the behavioral difference between predictions and reality – people are mainly interested in the social aspect of virtual worlds, which means that the opportunity to create things is secondary in the community.
So, what are the key lessons he saw 15 years ago that we should pay attention to today?
Demographics
Virtual worlds are dominated by children. In Prentice’s view, children do not like Second Life because there is not much to do there. Prentice said that people over 30 are the most loyal users of virtual worlds. Prentice also believes that understanding the user’s demographic structure is the most important consideration in creating a successful virtual world.
At the time, it was estimated that there were 30 million active virtual world users, although many did not have credit cards, which is obviously very different from today, where cryptocurrency has opened the floodgates for people of almost any age to enter the virtual world.
Early virtual worlds were often dominated by people with a technical background, which is not much different from today. This divide is mainly driven by the technical jargon of Web3 and cryptocurrency. This fact contributes to a common problem he sees: the solutions these people create are often complex and subject to feature creep, so technical experts are not good at creating features for people.
Active Users
Including game numbers, there were 500 million people living in virtual worlds at the time. However, there is an urgent need to assess the number of users, that is, there is a huge gap between login users and gamers. The ratio found is about 10 or 12:1 of downloaders to active users, although he found that the proportion of children who actually registered and participated in the world was no different from the overall population.
User-Generated Content and Community
The role of UGC was overemphasized at the time and is still overemphasized today, with articles still being written about how we should own our content and sell it as we wish.
Creating content in virtual worlds is obviously necessary, but most people do not have the inclination or skills to create content. People are mainly interested in the social aspect of the metaverse, which means that the opportunity to build things is secondary to the opportunity to belong to a community. Prentice suggests that virtual platforms should focus on building a community and then create a world that meets their needs.
Prentice believes that developers should consider what can be transferred from the real world to the virtual world, as it is related to what we buy – there is social validation in the way we shop.
Therefore, community and socialization are secondary to creation.
What attracts people to join groups? Most people like familiar customs and interests. The example he uses is that if you go to a Barbie doll website, you will meet like-minded people; this is how communities are formed.
Due to fear of criticism from Second Life believers, he said that SL is not a failure, but compared to children’s worlds with fewer development tools (i.e., Habbo Hotel), SL is less successful in engagement.
When Prentice asked Linden Labs about their target market for Second Life, they told him that it was everyone on Earth. Habbo understands their audience.
His conclusion is that virtual worlds with rich development tools have a certain role, but they are niche. Going back to the reason for immersive engagement, he suggests that people need environments that can confirm and affirm their self-esteem.
Success Criteria
Prentice suggests looking for games that combine fun with the established rules of success in online games. Prent
